AI Drives 500% Surge in Data Center Power Demand by 2040 as Hydrocarbons Remain Dominant

Abu Dhabi | EcoPulse24

Estimates indicate that global power demand from data centers is set to surge by 500% by 2040, with approximately 70% of this demand continuing to rely on hydrocarbon energy sources. This trend is driven by accelerating AI adoption and rapid global expansion of digital infrastructure, as discussed during Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week, attended by UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and leaders from global energy companies.

Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology and ADNOC CEO, emphasized the accelerating energy demand across all sectors. He noted that increased air travel, urbanization, and population growth of 1.5 billion people are reshaping the global energy landscape. Al Jaber highlighted that fossil fuels will remain a complementary growth driver in the foreseeable future, and continued reliance on them is a catalyst for designing a more efficient growth system, not a barrier.

The International Energy Agency cautioned that global electricity consumption is rising, with data center demand expected to more than double by 2030 to 945 TWh - equivalent to Japan’s current total electricity consumption. This is primarily due to the expansion of hyperscale data centers and their integration with energy-intensive AI applications.

Al Jaber also stated the UAE’s openness to international AI collaboration, noting that since 2024 the country has invested over $148 billion in the sector. The UAE has attracted investments from global firms such as OpenAI, Oracle, Nvidia, Cisco, and SoftBank through joint projects with G42, including the Stargate UAE complex in Abu Dhabi (5 GW capacity) and a Microsoft data center project (200 MW, $1.5 billion investment).

On the clean energy front, the UAE plans to add over 22 GW of capacity by 2031 to meet growing data center demand, targeting 35% of base load from clean sources by then. The country’s installed renewable capacity reached 6.8 GW at the end of 2024, with a 2030 target of 19.8 GW, supporting its net-zero emissions plan for 2050.

Analysis
These trends reflect AI’s shift from a technical driver to a major force pressuring the global energy system. There is a clear gap between fast-growing demand and the ability of clean energy to meet it alone. Continued reliance on hydrocarbons signals that the energy transition will be gradual rather than disruptive. The UAE’s approach seeks to balance digital expansion with investments in both traditional and renewable energy to ensure supply security and sustainable growth.