US-Israeli Military Escalation Against Iran Spurs Energy Risk Repricing, Pushes Gold Above $5,400 Amid Hormuz Supply Fears

Dubai | EcoPulse24

Commodity markets underwent broad-based risk repricing after joint US-Israeli strikes inside Iran were followed by Iranian military responses targeting US bases in several regional countries. This escalation placed the Strait of Hormuz at the center of attention, bringing risk premiums back to the pricing of oil and precious metals.

Gold traded at $5,395.84 per ounce, up $117.83 or 2.23%, surpassing $5,400 during the session and reaching its highest range in over a month. Silver reached $95.269, up $1.452 or 1.55%, reflecting a clear shift toward defensive assets.

In energy markets, West Texas Intermediate crude reached $71.987 per barrel, up $4.967 or 7.41%, while Brent crude climbed to $78.689 per barrel, up $5.819 or 7.99%, hitting multi-month highs. Natural gas traded at $3.0184, up $0.1594 or 5.58%. Gasoline was at $2.3864, up $0.0848 or 3.68%, while heating oil led gains among derivatives at $2.9405, up $0.3445 or 13.27%.

These price movements reflected a rapid reallocation of capital across asset classes, with intensive trading in oil and refined products as investment funds repositioned in anticipation of possible supply disruptions. Gold was supported by increased hedging demand, ongoing central bank purchases, and waning appeal of some debt instruments and currencies.

Markets are especially focused on the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly one-fifth of global oil trade and significant volumes of natural gas transit. Despite Tehran’s assurances that navigation continues, some shipping companies have begun rerouting tankers away from the narrow passage, heightening supply chain concerns. Meanwhile, the OPEC+ alliance announced an April production increase of 206,000 barrels per day after a three-month pause, but this remains below the previously discussed range of 411,000 to 548,000 barrels per day, keeping markets on edge.

EcoPulse24 Analysis:
The current environment reflects the renewed dominance of geopolitical risk premiums in commodity pricing. Energy markets are now moving more in response to potential maritime disruptions than to traditional fundamentals, while gold benefits from a global wave of hedging that signals declining confidence in political stability. Ongoing tensions around Hormuz are sustaining volatility and making future price trends dependent on whether escalation continues or any signs of de-escalation emerge to quickly reset the risk curve.