Lula's Ultimatum: 48 Hours to Seal the Largest Trade Agreement in History

In an unprecedented dramatic turn, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva issued a final warning to the European Union this Wednesday morning: either sign the free trade agreement with Mercosur within two days, or Brazil will permanently withdraw from negotiations that have lasted a quarter of a century.

During a cabinet meeting in Brasília, Lula stated emphatically: "I have already made it clear to them: if we do not finalize this agreement now, Brazil will not get a trade deal as long as I am president. If they say no now, we will be tough with them from now on."

This threat comes at a critical moment in negotiations, as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is scheduled to travel to Brazil on Saturday, December 20, to sign the agreement, but European opposition led by France and Italy may prevent this.

The negotiations between the EU and Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay) began in 1999, and on December 6, 2024, a political agreement was reached that is the largest in history for both parties, covering a market of 780 million people and representing 25% of global GDP. However, the path to final ratification is fraught with obstacles, requiring the approval of 15 out of 27 EU countries, representing 65% of the population. With only two days left until the scheduled signing, the agreement faces the risk of total collapse.