Fed Divide Deepens: December Cut in Doubt Amid Inflation Caution.
Fed split on December rate cut due to inflation concerns; data gaps and persistent inflation fuel debate, consensus weakens under Powell.
Fed minutes from November 19, 2025, reveal a split on last month's quarter-point cut, with many opposing December easing over entrenched inflation risks. Policymakers weighed labor softening against price stability, voting 10-2; dissents favored half-point or no cut.
Shutdown data gaps exacerbate debates. Inflation above 2% target persists, with tariffs adding one-time bumps but potential second-round effects. Williams backs near-term cuts if no wage spirals emerge, lifting odds to 70%. Rates at 3.75-4% remain restrictive. BLS cancels October CPI, delaying Fed insights; September jobs Thursday. Consensus erodes under Powell; 3.5% year-end possible if data softens.
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