Mixed Improvement in Canadian Economic Indicators: Recovery in Construction and Modest Rise in Wholesale Sales

According to the latest economic data, the Canadian economy presented a mixed but largely positive picture during October and the third quarter of 2025. The country saw a slight increase in wholesale sales, a notable recovery in building permits, and improvements in capacity utilization, indicating that economic activity is regaining some momentum despite global pressures and rising borrowing costs. Wholesale sales rose by 0.1% to CAD 86 billion, surpassing expectations for a slight contraction, driven by strong growth in auto and parts sales by 2.3% and a significant 16.7% rise in agricultural products, marking the sixth consecutive increase. Meanwhile, diverse wholesale sales declined by 3.7%, limiting the overall increase. Ontario was the main growth driver with a 0.9% rise, while sales in other provinces fell by 0.8%, excluding Ontario. Inventories remained stable around CAD 135.4 billion. In another context, industrial capacity utilization improved to 78.5% in Q3, compared to 77.6% in the previous quarter. The construction sector achieved its first increase after eight quarters of decline, with the utilization rate rising to 80.2% due to improved engineering activity. Manufacturing utilization increased to 77.8%, driven by strong expansion in the petroleum and coal industries, as well as an increase in transportation equipment production. Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas activities rose to 77.1%, benefiting from increased oil and gas extraction, while electricity utilization declined to 78.8% due to decreased hydropower generation resulting from dry weather conditions. In terms of investment, building permits surged by 14.9% to CAD 13.8 billion, achieving the fastest growth rate since June 2024 and far exceeding market expectations of a decline. The residential sector was a key player in this surge, with a noticeable increase in permits for multi-family units, particularly in Ontario and Quebec, while detached homes saw growth driven by activity in Alberta. Non-residential permits for commercial and institutional projects also rose, especially in Ontario and British Columbia, despite a slight decline in industrial permits. Together, these indicators reflect an economy that is moving with uneven vitality: some sectors, such as construction, energy, and manufacturing, are regaining strength, while performance remains weak in other consumption-related sectors. Nevertheless, the continued improvement in investment and capacity utilization presents a more stable picture for the Canadian economy as the year comes to a close.