Sawiris: Gold Poised for 10–15% Rise Amid Escalating Geopolitical Risks

Global Economy | EcoPulse24
According to AlArabiya Business، Egyptian businessman Naguib Sawiris, Chairman of Orascom Investment Holding, stated that recent events in Venezuela represent an unprecedented shift in the global geopolitical scene, surpassing all usual expectations in international relations. In remarks to AlArabiya Business, Sawiris described the US's arrest of a sitting head of state as an 'astonishing and unprecedented' move, noting that the lack of decisive responses from Russia or China could broaden the scope of international tensions, whether regarding Ukraine or Taiwan.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment
Sawiris predicted that the coming period will see simultaneous escalation in several global arenas, with little chance for a near-term settlement in the Ukraine war given Moscow's continued military operations. He added that US control over key aspects of Venezuela's oil sector could quickly impact energy markets, likely resulting in downward pressure on oil prices as new investments boost supply beyond the pace of global demand growth.

Dollar Losing Momentum
Regarding the US dollar, Sawiris expects its decline to persist through 2026, citing the world's waning interest in absolute dollar dominance. He attributed this to China's expansion of alternative payment and settlement systems, and the negative impact of geopolitical tensions and protectionist policies on the US economy. He also noted that tariffs and trade pressures will adversely affect American consumers and manufacturers, increasing pressure on the dollar as a global reserve currency.

Gold on an Upward Path
On precious metals, Sawiris affirmed that gold is set to continue rising in 2026, supported by lower interest rates and increased central bank purchases after gold reserves were recognized as equivalent monetary assets. He expects gold to gain between 10% and 15% this year, following a strong surge in 2025, pointing out that the supply-demand gap will persist due to the lengthy development cycle of gold mines compared to ongoing global demand growth.

Artificial Intelligence: Limited Winners
Regarding AI stocks, Sawiris remarked that the market will not yield profits for everyone, predicting that only one or two companies with vast liquidity and operational capabilities will dominate. He sees this as a strategic opportunity for Gulf countries to strengthen their presence in the global AI sector.