Oil Stabilizes at $61 per Barrel as Venezuelan Exports Resume and Iran Risks Intensify

New York | EcoPulse24

The recent rally in oil markets paused as a new equilibrium emerged between returning supplies and geopolitical disruption risks. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures traded near $61 per barrel, signaling a temporary cooling after four consecutive days of gains. This followed Venezuela’s resumption of overseas oil shipments, even as developments in Iran kept the risk premium priced into the market.

On the supply front, two giant tankers departed Venezuelan waters, each carrying approximately 1.8 million barrels - likely the first shipments under a 50-million-barrel supply deal with the United States. Meanwhile, prices remained close to three-month highs, supported by concerns over potential Iranian supply disruptions as protests escalated and Washington canceled talks with Iranian officials while signaling support for demonstrators. This threatens Iran’s output of around 3.3 million barrels per day.

Separately, attacks near the Caspian Sea pipeline disrupted Kazakhstan’s exports, compounding delays from harsh winter weather and damage to shipping terminals. In the U.S., American Petroleum Institute data showed crude inventories rose by 5.3 million barrels last week, which could mark the largest increase in two months if confirmed officially.

Analysis:
The market is navigating a delicate balance between news bringing some supply back online and developments raising the geopolitical risk premium. This equilibrium keeps prices supported without sparking a fresh rally, making the short-term outlook highly sensitive to any sudden changes in supply routes or political tensions.