London - January 8, 2026 | Shell plc disclosed preliminary fourth quarter 2025 outlook today, signaling significant pressure on its Chemicals and Products segment, which is expected to record below break-even performance with substantial losses stemming from non-cash deferred tax adjustments in a joint venture.

The company stated in an official release that chemicals margins declined from $160 per tonne in Q3 to $140 per tonne in Q4, with expectations for a sharp decline in Trading & Optimization activities compared to the previous quarter. Shell also warned that the Marketing segment will report earnings below Q4 2024 levels due to similar tax adjustments, while highlighting significant cash outflows exceeding $2.7 billion related to German emissions certificates payments ($1.5 billion) and mineral oil taxes ($1.2 billion).

In a parallel strategic move, Shell announced completion of the Canadian oil sands swap, reducing production to approximately 20,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, as part of the company's transformation toward less carbon-intensive assets. Shell will announce official Q4 results on February 5, 2026.

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