China Faces Highest Risk from Trump's Tariffs on Iran as Trade Pressure Expands

Washington | EcoPulse24

The United States has placed China at the top of the list of countries most exposed to new tariffs threatened by President Donald Trump, who announced a 25% duty on imports from any country that continues to engage in trade with Iran. This move comes as part of escalating economic pressure on Tehran amid widening domestic protests.

According to international trade data, China is Iran’s largest trading partner, with trade volume reaching $17.8 billion in 2024. Around 90% of Iranian oil exports are directed to China, followed by Turkey, which lags significantly with $8.8 billion in trade.

The potential impact is not limited to Asia and the Middle East. European economies are also within the scope, with Iran’s combined trade with Germany and Switzerland totaling approximately $3.5 billion. India ranks high among Tehran’s partners, while Uzbekistan recorded trade of $1.3 billion in 2024, despite recently announced agreements with Washington.

The US president stated that the tariffs would take effect immediately, without specifying the nature of targeted goods, entities, or the enforcement mechanism. Iranian trade data remains opaque due to sanctions, restrictions, and reliance on indirect routes through third countries.

This escalation comes amid a tense political climate, with large-scale protests erupting in Iran following a sharp decline in the national currency, evolving into one of the most severe domestic challenges for the regime. This turmoil has also impacted energy markets, pushing oil prices higher. In this context, notable European reactions have emerged, including statements from German Chancellor Friedrich Merz describing the Iranian regime as being in a critical phase.

Analysis
These developments signal a shift in US trade policy from direct pressure on Iran to a broader targeting of its global trading network. Including major partners such as China raises the cost of dealing with Tehran and complicates economic and political balances, especially for countries with deep strategic ties to Washington. While this approach may further isolate Iran, it also opens the door to more sensitive trade and geopolitical dynamics at the global level.